Some readers might be interested in a paper recently co-published by Energy
Action Scotland and the University of Stathclyde, called "Multiple
deprivation and excess winter deaths in Scotland".

"During the period 1997 to 2002, Scotland registered 16 660 excess winter
deaths (EWD is taken
as the additional deaths during Dec-Mar than occurred in the preceding and
subsequent four
month periods) in the population over 65. In 2003 the Scottish Index of
Multiple Deprivation
(SIMD) attempted to measure five key parameters by region: income,
employment, health and
disability, education, skills and training and geographical access to
services. Glasgow was the
most deprived region with an SIMD score of 46.88 and East Dunbartonshire,
the least deprived
region, with a score of 9.07. The chance of becoming an EWD in Glasgow is
1:36, rising to 1:68
for North Ayrshire. The SIMD is positively correlated with EWD by region
(0.35 at the 5%
confidence level). This correlation appears to go against the influence of
climatic variations, house
type, energy efficiency and access to the gas network, which favours urban
areas. Although some
of the additional winter deaths have been ascribed to outdoor cold
exposure - exacerbated by
inappropriate clothing levels or culturally determined behavior - the
majority of these deaths are
premature and essentially preventable, if the elderly can be kept warm in
their homes during the
winter months."

The full paper is at
http://www.eas.org.uk/downloads/Excess%20Winter%20Death%20Paper.pdf .

John Butler
The Agora Group
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