Hi Jeff,
In response to your comments:
"The evidence suggests that that someone is a social democratic party. Of course, to get them in office, a critical mass of citizens must support them and their policies rather than dreaming about a day when everyone will see the light. ...at the end of the day, we will have to vote for one party. So the question (at least at election time) becomes, which party will best support the SDOH?"
A large body of evidence demonstrates that electoral systems with prorportional representation (PR) have greater numbers of women and minorities in House/Cabinet, have more minority/coalition governments that are less inclined to behave like majority-government dictatorships (eg. Canada's Cretien era), bear greater levels of accountability to the electorate, have greater levels of voter turnout, have greater levels of left-Cabinet share, and (most significantly) place reprentatives in government in proportion to their popular vote.
Currently, Canada, the US, and the UK are the only three remaining countries in the developed world that still employ the single-member plurality (SMP) electoral system (aka first-past-the-post). In basic concept behind first-past-the-post is that the winner-takes-all. In a given district, four candidates may be running for a seat in the House of Commons. The breakdown of votes may be: candidate A 36%, candidate B 29%, candidate C 25%, and candidate D 20%. 100% of the seat would go to Candidate A, although their popular vote only represents 36% of the district. Essentially, candidates win seats with less than a majority, and parties win a majority of seats with
less than a majority of votes.
“The most egregious disparities occurred in
the 1993 [Canadian] federal election when a Conservative vote counted for next to
nothing. Even though they received more
votes than the Bloc Quebecois and almost as many as Reform, they only won two
seats while the Bloc and Reform got 54 and 53 seats respectively” (9. Beatty,
2001, p.51).
Further, national/issue-based parties with little regional concentration (like the New Democratic and Green Parties) have no plausible chance of winning because their support is nationally spread and, consequently, their votes are 'wasted'.
In place of first-past-the-post, countries are better off adapting a more PR-inclined electoral system such as the mixed-member plurality (MMP) which combines elements of both first-past-the-post (familiar to existing constituencies) and PR. In the MMP system, half the members of legislature are elected in single-member districts (first past the post). The remaining half of the seats in the legislature are allocated to each party in accordance to their appropriate share of seats as reflected by the popular vote (PR).
The most recent example of PR is New Zealand which shifted away from first-past-the-post and adopted MMP through a nationa referendum in 1996.
Currently, the province of Ontario has set up a Citizen's Assembly on Electoral Reform; consisting of randomly selected Ontario residents. The Assembly is analysing alternative electoral systems. On May 15th, the Assembly will put forth a recommendation on whether to change the current electoral system in Ontario. At current time, it appears that the Assembly is likely to recommend MMP. The Assembly's recommendation will then be put to a national referendum on October 10th, 2007. The referendum must obtain 60% of the province's support for change.
Meaningful change is possible! And it's happening right now as we speak....
Rahul Mediratta
----- Original Message ----
From: Jeff Denis <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:26:51 AM
Subject: Re: [SDOH] NDP speech on social determinants of health
Also check out the work of Walter Korpi, Gosta Esping-Andersen, Evelyne Huber
and John D. Stephens.
It would be great if the voters could force the other parties to act on the
SDOH. But my question is how committed these other parties will be? Unless they
truly undergo a "paradigm shift" and aren't just doing it for short-term
political gain, I believe they will try to undermine the very policies they are
being forced to implement - just like we've seen with Canadian health care over
the past 20 years - "privatization by stealth." The federal Liberals failed to
enforce the Canada Health Act and virtually ignored the Romanow Report. The
provincial Conservatives laid off thousands of nurses and closed hospitals that
shouldn't have been closed. And then they all complain that the public health
care system just isn't working. Well, when you treat it like that, of course
there are going to be problems! So I'd rather see someone in office who's truly
committed to addressing the SDOH (and protecting and strengthening public health
care). The evidence suggests that that someone is a social democratic party. Of
course, to get them in office, a critical mass of citizens must support them
and their policies rather than dreaming about a day when everyone will see the
light. That doesn't mean we can't criticize and lobby ALL parties and try to
convince them to do better. We definitely should do that. We also should debate
with fellow citizens about health-promoting policies and mobilize our
communities to get out and participate in political decision-making where
possible (e.g., some of us made submissions to the non-partisan Ontario
Citizens' Assembly on electoral reform). But, at the end of the day, we will
have to vote for one party. So the question (at least at election time)
becomes, which party will best support the SDOH?
Jeff
Quoting Carlos Quinonez <[log in to unmask]>:
> Thanks!
>
> CQ
>
> On 15-Mar-07, at 10:11 AM, Dennis Raphael wrote:
>
> > from Chapter 11 in Raphael, forthcoming
> >
> > Among developed nations, left cabinet share is the best predictor
> > of child
> > poverty rates. Rainwater and Smeeding found a striking relationship
> > between
> > left cabinet share in national governments from 1946 to the 1990s
> > and child
> > poverty rates (Rainwater & Smeeding, 2003). Among 14 nations
> > between 1946
> > and 1990, the presence of left parties in national government was
> > strongly
> > related to the probability that a child would not experience
> > poverty. The
> > correlation was a very strong .84. Sweden for example, had a 32% left
> > cabinet share with 42-1 odds of escaping child poverty. Belgium has
> > a 13%
> > left cabinet share and a 18-1 odds of escaping child poverty.
> > Canada has 0%
> > left cabinet share and 7% odds of escaping child poverty.
> > What exactly is left cabinet share? This term refers to having
> > members of a social democratic or left party involved in running
> > government
> > by being in cabinet. Canada has never had a member of a left party in
> > federal cabinet. Canada has had however, left influence during
> > minority
> > government situations. The welfare state institutions of medicare and
> > public pensions were established during periods of minority
> > government rule
> > in which the NDP held the balance of power.
> > Brady studied 16 western democracies for the period 1967 to
> > 1997 and
> > looked at the impact of left political institutions on a nation’s
> > poverty
> > rate (Brady, 2003). The findings showed that the power of left
> > political
> > institutions have a powerful effect on poverty reduction. It does so
> > through processes of high voter turnout and support of left parties
> > that
> > support the welfare state. In addition, coordination of wage
> > negotiation --
> > a result of strong union density -- combines with welfare state
> > policy to
> > reduce poverty. While the welfare state is an essential determinant of
> > poverty, left political institutions are critical to understanding
> > comparative historical variation in both the strength of welfare
> > states and
> > level of poverty among the population.
> > During the federal minority government in 2005, the NDP held the
> > balance of power. During the Spring 2005 budget negotiations, the NDP
> > offered its support for the minority Liberal government in return for
> > significant added spending for childcare, social housing, and public
> > transportation. This resulted in the suspension of planned tax
> > reductions
> > to the corporate sector and additional social spending. This is an
> > example
> > of left influence upon poverty-related public policy.
> >
> >
> > Brady, D. (2003). The politics of poverty: Left political
> > institutions, the
> > welfare state, and poverty. Social Forces, 82, 557-588.
> > Rainwater, L., & Smeeding, T. M. (2003). Poor Kids in a Rich Country:
> > America's Children in Comparative Perspective. New York: Russell Sage
> > Foundation.
> >
> > see also
> >
> > Alesina, A., & Glaeser, E. L. (2004). Fighting Poverty in the US and
> > Europe: A World of Difference. Toronto: Oxford University Press.
> >
> >
> >
> > Carlos Quinonez <[log in to unmask]>@YORKU.CA> on 15/03/2007
> > 09:39:49 AM
> >
> >
> > Please respond to Social Determinants of Health <[log in to unmask]>
> > Sent by: Social Determinants of Health <[log in to unmask]>
> >
> > To: [log in to unmask]
> > cc:
> >
> >
> >
> > Subject: Re: [SDOH] NDP speech on social determinants of health
> >
> >
> >
> > Wow, I didn't know that the strength of, and support for, social
> > democratic political parties in the single best predictor for these
> > states of affairs. Can you provide some quick references please?
> > That's surprising, but it makes sense in a way.
> >
> > And a minority government where a social democratic party hold the
> > balance of power, hey, isn't that right now?!
> >
> > So I guess there's no better time for change!
> >
> > CQ
> >
> >
> >
> > On 15-Mar-07, at 9:23 AM, Dennis Raphael wrote:
> >
> >> The single best predictor of low poverty rates, a developed welfare
> >> state,
> >> and income and social security of citizens in developed nations is
> >> strength
> >> of, and support for, social democratic political parties. Period.
> >>
> >> While we may consider the forces that lead to such support, and the
> >> need
> >> for popular education and communiy mobilization, that is the absolute
> >> bottom line.
> >>
> >> The history of social advances in Canada, the UK, and yes, even the
> >> USA,
> >> provides ample evidence of this fact. Public pensions and medicare in
> >> Canada only came about during Minority governments where a social
> >> democratic party held the balance of power.
> >>
> >> Nuff said.
> >>
> >> On another note we have known Jack Layton for close to 25 years.
> >> He is the
> >> most dedicated, sincere, honest, and bright elected representative
> >> we have
> >> ever known. And his personal attributes have been backed up by solid
> >> achievements. The Healthy City Movement was established in Toronto
> >> while he
> >> was chair of the Board of Health...
> >> --------------------------------------------------
> >> Layton helped spur the most innovative projects the city has seen
> >> in a
> >> generation:
> >>
> >> -Canada’s first municipally-sponsored AIDS strategy, which became a
> >> nationwide model.
> >> -Deep lakewater cooling of downtown office buildings, celebrated by
> >> environmentalist Robert Kennedy Jr.
> >> -The Healthy Cities model, adopted by the WHO and emulated in
> >> cities around
> >> the world.
> >> -The White Ribbon Campaign, which became a global movement of men
> >> speaking
> >> out against violence against women.
> >> -The first urban wind turbine in Canada, cooperatively owned – and
> >> generating enough clean electricity to light 250 homes.
> >> -The largest building renovation project in Canadian history, the
> >> Better
> >> Buildings Partnership, which paid for energy retrofits through future
> >> energy savings.
> >>
> >> dr
> >>
> >> dr
> >>
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