Richard Wilkinson at an otherwise lacklustre conference in Melbourne some years ago declared that his evidence shows that, of course, safe sex, no smoking etc are important BUT/AND if you want to add 5 years to your life, have three good friends. I quote him in my book on salutogenesis and the social determinants," Environments for Health" from Earthscan


Professor John J Macdonald
Foundation Chair in Primary Health Care
Co-Director Men's Health Information and Resource Centre
P11 Hawkesbury Campus
Locked Bag 1797 Penrith South DC NSW 1797
Tel (61) 2 45701123
Fax (61) 2 45701552

-----Original Message-----
From: Social Determinants of Health [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Dave Cundiff
Sent: Wednesday, January 17, 2007 4:51 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [SDOH] Winning Nobel Prize increases lifespan by 2 years

Thanks, Rahul.

A brief foray into the mathematics of life expectancy:  The risk of death doubles about every eight years in adult humans.  Life expectancy will decrease [or increase] by X years if the risk of death is multiplied [or divided] by (two to the X/8 power).  To increase Since 1.19 is roughly the fourth root of two, a sustained 19% increase in risk of death will decrease life expectancy by about two years.

Nineteen percent isn't a big change.  You'd need a fair-size data set just to say that a 19% difference in risk of death was non-random.  I don't think you could exclude confounding variables well enough to establish "cause and effect" for this observation.

Not all determinants of longevity are social determinants, and even  
the social determinants have a mix of direct and indirect effects.   
The factors (social, biological, and other) that lead to exceptional performance in ANY healthy activity may also lead to increased longevity.

Also, as Graeme elegantly pointed out, just receiving extra dollars could extend many people's lifespans significantly....

Best wishes!

Dave Cundiff, MD, MPH
Olympia, WA, USA

***

Quoting Rahul Mediratta <[log in to unmask]>:

> Ivy,
>
> Your suggestion that enhanced self-worth, self-confidence, and   
> self-respect promote a higher quality of life (and subsequently a   
> longer life expectancy) is plausible. The social   
> validation/inclusion that one would experience as a Nobel Laureate   
> could increase one's lifespan by 2 years.  Grace-Edward Galabuzi   
> states that "groups experiencing some form of social exclusion tend   
> to sustain higher health risks and lower health status" (2004,   
> p.255, Social Determinants of Health).
>
> However, I am not sure to what extent runner-ups experience dire   
> social invalidation/exclusion to the effect of 2 fewer years of   
> life. I would guess that being nominated for the Nobel Prize is   
> honour and pride enough. Furthermore, by the time an individual is a  
>  Nobel Laureate, they are arguably well passed the age of 30-40 and   
> alot of the long-term mental/physical pronouncements of an   
> advantaged/disadvantaged childhood have already been determined.   
> Perhaps there is a flaw in the methodology of this study or perhaps   
> the researchers were a bit presumptuous.
>
> Rahul
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: Ivy Shiue <[log in to unmask]>
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Sent: Tuesday, January 16, 2007 8:07:13 PM
> Subject: Re: [SDOH] Winning Nobel Prize increases lifespan by 2 years
>
> Would it be considered that their mental health (ie confidence,   
> respect, perception on themselves younger to work more....) were   
> proved since winning the prize? And this made them have better   
> quality of life?
>
>   Ivy
>
>
>
>
> Rahul Mediratta <[log in to unmask]> 說：
>   Winning Nobel Prize increases lifespan by 2 years LONDON (Reuters) - 
> Winning the Nobel Prize quite literally gives scientists a new lease 
> of life. New research at the University of Warwick in central England 
> shows that scientists who have won the prize for their work in 
> chemistry and physics not only get cash and kudos but they live two 
> years longer than colleagues who have only been nominated.
>
> full article:
>    
> http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articlenews.aspx?type=scienceNews&stor
> yid=2007-01-16T192705Z_01_L16219139_RTRIDST_0_SCIENCE-LIFE-NOBELPRIZE-
> DC.XML
>
>
>
>
> Rahul Mediratta
>
>
>
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