I also don't think that we should make fun of influenza. In fact, I think we 
still know very little about it.
I believe that the deaths did not come as expected because the H3 virus did 
not co-circulate with the Pandemic virus. Lucky all!
Maria Inês Azambuja, MD
Brazil
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19962834

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Dave Cundiff" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Sunday, December 27, 2009 11:09 PM
Subject: Re: [SDOH] The fright before Christmas, by André Picard


> If only influenza were a more predictable killer!
>
> We understand influenza much better than we did 25 years ago.   However, 
> it is still very difficult to predict when - and in what ways  - influenza 
> viruses will change.  It is also somewhat difficult to  predict how - and 
> how quickly - an influenza virus will spread.
>
> It is an annoying diversion when influenza is overestimated.  When 
> influenza is underestimated, though, it leads to perilous neglect.   And, 
> given the inevitable scientific uncertainties, it is impossible  to 
> estimate influenza correctly every time.
>
> SDOH needs more consideration in public health policy assessment and 
> action.  SDOH advocates rightly demand that we consider the relevant 
> science, even when it's uncomfortable to do so.  I hope we'll do the  same 
> with all of the public health sciences.
>
> Thanks for an amusing poem, though....
>
> Best wishes for 2010!
>
> Dave Cundiff, MD, MPH
> Olympia, Washington, USA
>
> ***
>
> Quoting Dennis Raphael <[log in to unmask]>:
>
>> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/h1n1-swine-flu/the-fright-before-christmas-by-andr-picard/article1410888/
>>
>> The Fright before Christmas
>> by Andre Picard
>> 'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house,
>> No swine flu virus was spreading, not even to a mouse.
>> The sanitizer was placed by the sink with much care,
>> In hopes the end of the threat would soon be declared.
>> The children were cowering from the bug in their beds,
>> While visions of Tamiflu danced in their heads.
>> Mamma sneezed in her kerchief, Papa coughed in his sleeve,
>> If we are all immunized then this disease would just leave.
>> From Mexico H1N1 arrived like a flash,
>> One wave, then two, it cost loads of cash.
>> In the news, on the Web, arose such a clatter,
>> They dubbed it pandemic and made much of the matter.
>> We soon feared pork, travellers, then each other,
>> The memories of SARS became such a bother.
>> WHO said all humanity must be engaged in this battle,
>> The imminent global threat left us all rattled.
>> Level three, level four, level six back to five,
>> It's a wonder than any of us are still alive.
>> The numbers were staggering, millions could die,
>> Public health mobilized and not on the sly.
>> From province to province they said flu would go,
>> Infecting all in its path and laying them low.
>> When, what to our wondering eyes should appear,
>> But a pandemic plan that left us quaking with fear.
>> With serious messages expressed in grave tones,
>> It could be none other than David Butler Jones.
>> On radio, TV and newspaper ads he proclaimed,
>> Leona Aglukkaq, she said much the same.
>> ?Wash your hands, wash your hands,? they maintained,
>> ?Stay home if you're sick,? we must all do the same.
>> H1N1 has most assuredly gone viral,
>> Out of hand we can not let it spiral.
>> ?Don't panic, don't panic, don't panic,? they said,
>> ?Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate,? instead.
>> Kiddies, preggers and priority groups first of all,
>> Then we jab 'em, we jab 'em, we'll jab 'em all.
>> We have enough vaccine to immunize all by Christmas,
>> The campaign's necessary, on this you can trust us.
>> Rush to a clinic, there's one close to you,
>> And remember queue-jumping's not a thing to do.
>> The doubters they said: ?Well, this will never fly,
>> This vaccine's not needed, you've been caught in a lie.?
>> The shortages, the adjuvant, fuelled conspiracy theories,
>> Experts were stumped, couldn't keep up with the queries.
>> Spanish flu, don't forget, killed more young than old,
>> It could happen again, or so we were told.
>> Thus we stood in long lines for hours for the shot,
>> And later we'd wonder: Was it all for naught?
>> With nary a word, public health did its work,
>> The waits they all vanished, as did the irk.
>> This flu turned out to not be one for the ages,
>> Leaving us to wonder why we flew into rages.
>> The fear has since faded, the headlines have vanished,
>> The pandemic has peaked, the foe has been vanquished.
>> But no, we're still told, you could still get this bug,
>> 'Cause during the holidays we kiss and we hug.
>> Giving the flu to granny is not a gift that will amuse,
>> Besides we have 20 million doses we still need to use.
>> Such a huge surplus is costly but ultimately pleasant,
>> To those more in need we can now send a nice present.
>> Was swine flu for real, a good old-fashioned threat?
>> Did we overreact, would it have been a better bet,
>> To respond with a wink of the eye and a twist of the head,
>> And make like we know of no disease we should dread?
>> Soon we can do our postmortem and be most unpleasant,
>> Second guess all the action, pretend we resent it.
>> But first let's exclaim, as H1N1 fades from sight,
>> ?Happy Christmas to all, it was quite a good fright!?
>> With apologies to Clement Clarke Moore, author of the iconic poem A Visit
>> from St. Nicholas.
>>
>> Dennis Raphael, PhD
>> Professor of Health Policy and Management
>> York University
>> 4700 Keele Street
>> Room 418, HNES Building
>> Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3
>> 416-736-2100, ext. 22134
>> email: [log in to unmask]
>> http://www.atkinson.yorku.ca/draphael
>>
>> Of interest:
>>
>> * NEW * Health Promotion and Quality of Life in Canada: Essential
>> Readings, edited by Dennis Raphael
>> http://tinyurl.com/ycb4rm5
>>
>> Social Determinants of Health: Canadian Perspectives, 2nd edition, edited
>> by Dennis Raphael
>> Forewords by Carolyn Bennett and Roy Romanow
>> http://tinyurl.com/5l6yh9
>>
>> Poverty and Policy in Canada: Implications for Health and Quality of Life
>> by Dennis Raphael
>> Foreword by Jack Layton
>> http://tinyurl.com/2hg2df
>>
>> Staying Alive: Critical Perspectives on Health, Illness, and Health Care,
>> edited by Dennis Raphael, Toba Bryant, and Marcia Rioux
>> Foreword by Gary Teeple
>> http://tinyurl.com/2zqrox
>>
>> See a lecture!  The Politics of Population Health
>> http://msl.stream.yorku.ca/mediasite/viewer/?peid=ac604170-9ccc-4268-a1af-9a9e04b28e1d
>>
>>
>> Also, presentation on Politics and Health at the Centre for Health
>> Disparities in Cleveland Ohio
>> http://www.case.edu/med/ccrhd/education
>>
>>
>> To leave, manage or join list: 
>> https://listserv.yorku.ca/cgi-bin/wa?SUBED1=sdoh&A=1
>>
>>
>
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>
> Esta mensagem foi verificada pelo E-mail Protegido Terra.
> Atualizado em 28/12/2009
> 

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