Is a Conservative victory inevitable?


The real reason that so much of the media coverage is focused on polling,
and so many millions of dollars are spent on doing polling, is to ensure
media and corporate control of the political agenda.

by Dennis Pilon
January 18, 2006

The Globe and Mail has shifted to victory mode this week, with columnist
after columnist smugly asserting that the Conservatives are coasting to
victory. The only question left is whether the party will reach the magic
threshold of 40- 45 per cent to win a majority of the seats. The Globe's
polling firm, Strategic Counsel, claims that the Conservatives still have
room to expand their support, particularly in Quebec and urban Ontario. The
sky's the limit, it would appear.

But if one takes a critical look at Strategic's polling methods, and
compares them to polls prepared by other firms, things don't look as if
they're in the bag yet for the Conservatives.

For instance, as Simon Fraser University political scientist Andrew Heard
points out on his elections website, a number of the polling firms are
rolling decided voters in with what pollsters call "leaners," people who
don't actually have strong views about the parties. People in this group
only give an opinion because they are pressed by interviewers to do so.
Heard argues that such leaners are "quite volatile and [can] either change
their party preference or even decide not to vote at all."

A glance at the Strategic website reveals that this lumping of decided and
"leaners" is just what they are doing. When we combine this questionable
practice with the rather large margins of error factored into their
polling, the Conservative advantage all but disappears.

For instance, while Strategic's national margin of error is just + or - 2.5
per cent, that figure shoots up in a host of regions where Conservative
support is claimed to be improving: 7.4 per cent in Montreal, 6.4 per cent
in the GTA, and 7 per cent across all of B.C. Strategic does not report any
levels of undecided voters.

If we turn to the other polling companies a different picture emerges. SES
reports that 14 per cent of those surveyed are still undecided, with 13 per
cent undecided in Ontario, and a whopping 20 per cent undecided in Quebec.
SES also asks respondents if they are "leaning" toward any party, but by
providing an "undecideds" percentage they at least are more honest about
how much room there still is for a shift in voting intentions before
Election Day.

SES also provides a different picture of the Conservative "momentum." First
of all, the spread between the Liberals and Tories is much closer - just 7
or 8 per cent - rather than the 13-14 per cent spread reported by
Strategic. SES also reports a much closer race between the Liberals and
Conservatives in Quebec (19 per cent versus 22 per cent), Ontario (34 per
cent versus 38 per cent) and Atlantic Canada (39 per cent versus 32 per
cent). Curiously, Strategic doesn't report results for Atlantic Canada, one
region where the Liberals are in the lead.

Other polling firms offer even more stark alternatives to the pro-
Conservative polling numbers coming from Strategic. Leger reports federal
voting intentions both in terms of firm commitments and then with the
addition of "leaners" and "undecideds." Counting only the firmly decided,
the Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck with 26 per cent and 27
per cent, with 20 per cent not willing to commit. Adding in "leaners," the
Leger figures still show a more competitive race, with the Liberals at 32
per cent and the Conservatives at 34 per cent.

And if we break down such figures in terms of where parties are strong or
weak, or where they can conceivably win seats, the whole picture becomes
more competitive. Thus we should be less impressed by province-wide polling
numbers and more interested in how that plays out in places where Liberals
or Conservatives have a shot at winning.

The fact that the Liberals are leading in Montreal is much more important
than the province-wide figures for Quebec as that area is traditionally a
stronghold for the party. The fact that the Liberals are leading in the
Greater Toronto Area will limit a Tory sweep of the province. And their
strength in the Maritimes will give them a boost in seats as that area of
the country is over-represented vis-à-vis other areas of the country.

Of course, if things really are so volatile electorally, why are the media
and pollsters like Strategic reporting what Canadians believe in such a
skewed way? The papers and pollsters claim they are only providing
necessary information to the public - all to help them make more informed
decisions. But this doesn't explain why The Globe and Mail and Strategic
choose to suppress the number of "undecideds."

An ungenerous interpretation might point to the fact that Strategic is run
by Conservatives (Allan Gregg was a longtime Conservative pollster) or that
The Globe, and their corporate backers, would like to see a Conservative
government. But in so many ways the Liberals have also been a good friend
to corporate Canada. After all, the Liberal government fell in large part
because Paul Martin was so desperate to demonstrate his fidelity to
Canada's rich with a whopping corporate tax cut.

The real reason that so much of the media coverage is focused on polling,
and so many millions of dollars are spent on doing polling, is to ensure
media and corporate control of the political agenda. Constantly harping on
the horse race, particularly between two largely indistinguishable parties,
is a way of corralling voters into an American-style two party system and
obscuring the issues that voters might want discussed.

If individual voters can be convinced that everyone else (i.e. other
voters) are moving in a particular direction (i.e. toward the Tories) then
some will opt for the Liberals as a reaction, particularly soft New
Democrats. Though many complain that the NDP themselves have become a bit
corporate lately, the fact is that they are still perceived by voters as
representing something different from the Liberals and Conservatives. This
degree of competition, weak as it is, represents a degree of uncertainly
for Canada's corporate media that they would like to eradicate.

After all, the corporations have themselves covered - they win with either
the Liberals or Conservatives. But if neither wins an outright majority, as
is likely as long as Canada retains a multiparty system, they are not as
useful or controllable. Thus when the media rush to embrace and proclaim
the inevitability of a Conservative victory - they are not merely reporting
they news, they are trying to create it.

Dennis Pilon teaches politics and Canadian Studies at Trent University. He
is a member of the Canadian Dimension editorial board, and the chair of the
Toronto-based Centre for Social Justice.


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