----------------- HES POSTING ----------------- Robin Neill's experience of policy discussions is obviously very different from mine, whether those I have participated in, or those of which I have studied the documentary record. I have not found an assumption of certainty. Rather I have found much focus on uncertainty, on the most likely "state of the world" and of the nature and likely size of the "risks" on the "upside" and on the "downside". This all refers to both the general environment and to likely behaviour by significant actors. The emphasis on uncertainty has increased over time, which probably reflects changes in the nature of the world more than changes in the nature of decision- making. I'd put more weight on the nature of economics as a set of techniques of analysis which is drawn on for identifying and analysing policy issues, and for formulating proposed responses. The assumption of perfect knowledge is a stage in the development of the techniques of analysis. Gary Hawke Victoria University of Wellington ------------ FOOTER TO HES POSTING ------------ For information, send the message "info HES" to [log in to unmask]