----------------- HES POSTING ----------------- The quotation is known. You can see Stephen M. Stigler The history of Statistics, Belknap Press 1986: 327. According to Stigler, Pearson cited Edgeworth's work on a priori probabilities (i.e. three papers published in 1884). Edgeworth's founded his theory of probabilities on Spencerian (hence Kantian) ideas, but in a very complicated way, and also in Edgeworth's style of writing. A critical point of E's foundations of probability is the notion of a priori probability (on this theme I wrote a paper in History of economic ideas, 1997). So I think that the "cobweb" is only a metaphor. My interpretation of the quotation is the following [but I think it is necessary to control Pearson's Grammar]: Pearson "adheres to Laplace's doctrine of indirect probabilities [i.e. probabilities not known directly by experience, i.e. a priori probabilities] in its least acceptable form [Edgeworth's version of a priori probabilities], relying here upon Mr. F. Y. Edgeworth's cobwebs" [Pearson is entrapped by E's Spencerian arguments about a priori probabilities]. Alberto Baccini ------------ FOOTER TO HES POSTING ------------ For information, send the message "info HES" to [log in to unmask]