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Robin Neill's experience of policy discussions is obviously very  
different from mine, whether those I have participated in, or those of  
which I have studied the documentary record. I have not found an  
assumption of certainty. Rather I have found much focus on  
uncertainty, on the most likely "state of the world" and of the  
nature and likely size of the "risks" on the "upside" and on the  
"downside". This all refers to both the general environment and to  
likely behaviour by significant actors. The emphasis on uncertainty  
has increased over time, which probably reflects changes in the  
nature of the world more than changes in the nature of decision- 
making.   
 
I'd put more weight on the nature of economics as a set of  
techniques of analysis which is drawn on for identifying and  
analysing policy issues, and for formulating proposed responses.  
The assumption of perfect knowledge is a stage in the development  
of the techniques of analysis.   
 
 
Gary Hawke 
Victoria University of Wellington 
 
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