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I think that Bruce Larson is correct to suggest looking at Bagehot as a  
nice place to begin tracing one of the primary streams of influence on the  
thinking on speculation and uncertainty in English political economy. If  
you look at Mary and Alfred Marshall's Economics of Industry (1879), you'll 
also see that Overstone is an important precursor. 
 
I suspect, however, that if you trace out this whole branch of thinking in  
English political economy (say, from Overstone and Bagehot, through  
Marshall, Pigou, and Lavington, and then on to J.M. Keynes) that you will  
not find much influence from formal psychology (or clinical psychology).  
Likewise, Roger Backhouse has identified a similar stream of thinking on  
speculation and uncertainty in American 19th century political economy in  
one of the essays in his collection Interpreting Macroeconomics (1995). 
 
Brad Bateman 
 
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