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Date: | Fri Mar 31 17:18:55 2006 |
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----------------- HES POSTING -----------------
Robin Neill's experience of policy discussions is obviously very
different from mine, whether those I have participated in, or those of
which I have studied the documentary record. I have not found an
assumption of certainty. Rather I have found much focus on
uncertainty, on the most likely "state of the world" and of the
nature and likely size of the "risks" on the "upside" and on the
"downside". This all refers to both the general environment and to
likely behaviour by significant actors. The emphasis on uncertainty
has increased over time, which probably reflects changes in the
nature of the world more than changes in the nature of decision-
making.
I'd put more weight on the nature of economics as a set of
techniques of analysis which is drawn on for identifying and
analysing policy issues, and for formulating proposed responses.
The assumption of perfect knowledge is a stage in the development
of the techniques of analysis.
Gary Hawke
Victoria University of Wellington
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