Mokyr's favorable review of Smil whets one's appetite to read and learn from
Smil. Some key points are missing, however.
The idea that "the problem is not production, but distribution" is prominent
in J.S. Mill, 1848; in Henry George, 1879; and in many socialists. This
awareness preceded the great "saltation" of technology that Smil stresses as
the bend in the hockey stick.
The distributional view reached a high point in the 1930's, the formative
years of many leading economists of the generation now retiring, and turned
them toward careers in the social sciences. The idea of cultural lag of
social organization behind science and technique had become commonplace, and
kept us from being carried away by technolatry. Since then the view that "a
rising tide lifts all boats" has taken hold, fortified by massive "deep
lobbying" by think-tanks funded by those in the biggest boats.
George, of course, stressed that many who have no boats suffer from that
rising tide; that the prices of land and natural resources would take up
most of the gains of material progress. Young people seeking affordable
housing today are finding much truth in that forecast. High and rising
energy prices, and various raw material prices, also attest to it. Much of
those kinds of prices are artfully excluded from the official CPI, just as
depletion is stubbornly excluded from the NIPA accounts, even after years of
exposure by independent critics.
Economists have not only let this happen, many have been downright
contemptuous of those who warned against rising resource scarcity and
prices. Tony Scott chaired a session at the 1972 AEA meeting in Toronto at
which many speakers, including Nathan Rosenberg, gleefully ganged up on Jay
Forrester and the Meadows couple and their Club of Rome Report on *Limits to
Growth*. (Tony himself, as chair, remained properly neutral.) Regrettably
those papers were not published in the Proceedings, for they would document
how many elders of the profession had come to view The Earth as an infinite
reservoir of materials and building sites, only awaiting the magic touch of
man's capital and technology to fructify them. Why not? That's what J.B.
Clark told them, and the AEA still awards a high-level prize in his name, as
though it were an honor.
All hail to scholars who educate us on the history of material progress; but
let us remember the problem of cultural lag, and the great classical
economists' emphasis on distribution. Perhaps Mokyr could make it more clear
where Smil stands on the matter.
Mason Gaffney
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