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I refer to Tim Davis's extraordinarily insightful editorial on
Ricardo's policy prescriptions made during the recessions which
followed the Napoleonic Wars. He makes the startling point that
Ricardo correctly assessed the nature of the economic problems
Britain was dealing with at the time and provided policy advice
that correctly addressed the problems as they actually then were.
Why this has become a controversial position is largely because
of the near universal belief that Ricardo held, as Davis states,
"a dogmatic version of the law of markets in the face of evidence ... contradicting that
theory. His apparent use of an extreme version
of Say's Law leaves authors sympathetic to him perplexed." What
makes Davis's article so compelling is that he has gone through
contemporary accounts of the actual events as they unfolded to
demonstrate that Ricardo, far from being trapped by an
inadequate and rigid theoretical structure, was in fact perfectly
attuned to the economic problems of his time.
The reason Ricardo is looked down upon in the way he has been is
because his name was blackened by Keynes in the opening pages of
the General Theory. Ricardo was said to have been responsible for
economists having adopted Say's Law from the early years of the
nineteenth century down through until 1936. Their adoption of
Say's Law had meant, so Keynes wrote, that economists were unable
to understand the nature of recessions or provide advice on how
unemployment could be brought to an end. At the same time, again
according to Keynes, Malthus's views had been rejected by an
economics community too dense to understand what Malthus had been
saying about the causes of the post-Napoleonic War depressions
and about what actions were needed to hasten recovery. All this
is part of the founding mythology of the Keynesian Revolution
which remains largely in place to this day.
So if I could, I would make a number of points which take up,
from a different perspective, the argument being made by Davis.
The first and primary point is that the modern textbook version
of Say's Law - the Say's Identity/ Say's Equality version - is
a completely nonsensical depiction of what the law of markets
really meant to classical economists. But why take my word for
it? This was also stated by William Baumol who in 1952, along
with Gary Becker, invented this modern straw man caricature of
Say's Law, ironically in an article which was, in reality, a
defence of classical monetary theory against Keynesian attacks.
The following is a quote from Baumol taken from my book, Say's
Law and the Keynesian Revolution (Elgar 1998, page 192-93). Here
Baumol makes it abundantly clear that Say's Equality and Say's
Identity provide no insight whatsoever into what classical
economists actually believed:
"All of the writers, Say, Mill, Ricardo, etc., said some things
that sound like either 'Say's identity' or 'Say's equality', and
mean something related to one or another of them. However, my test
of whether a particular author meant something that is attributed
to him or her is the following imaginary experiment: Consider a
James Mill brought back to life, and read to him what Keynes
attributed to him, and also the Becker-Baumol passages defining the
identity or the equality. Give Mill a choice of the following
comments (a) 'This is just what I meant.' (b) 'This is certainly
not what I meant.' and (c) 'Did I say that? - I'm not even sure
I understand what you are talking about.' I am reasonably confident
that Mill and the others would not select either (a) or (b) and
that they would very likely choose (c). This is in contrast, say,
with Marx, who would unambiguously select (b) (with some expletives)
if told he believed in 'the iron law of wages', while Dupuit
would surely say that modern interpreters have his views on consumer's
surplus right."
This is no minor matter. Ricardo has been accused of adopting a rigid
version of the law of markets when in fact no classical economist
accepted anything so ridiculous. No classical economist of consequence
ever accepted either Say's Identity or Say's Equality as a valid
statement of how an economy actually worked. Ricardo cannot be tarred
with this brush.
But what Davis has uncovered goes even deeper. What every classical
economist of consequence accepted was that recessions were never
caused by there being too little demand. That was the precise and
practical meaning of the law of markets to classical economists. This,
too, was underscored by Ricardo in a letter to Malthus dealing with
the law of markets (October 9, 1820). Ricardo wrote, "men err in their productions, there
is no deficiency of demand" (Ricardo 1953-71,
VIII, page 277). He was here not denying the existence of recessions but explaining how
they came about.
Davis has looked into the nature of the recessions which followed the
Napoleonic Wars and has uncovered, firstly, that there were four separate
recessions, not just one, and, secondly, that none of the four can be
attributed to a failure of demand. Moreover, when Davis explains the
causes of the manufacturing and trade recessions, he argues that they
were due to "a significant dislocation of capital". That is, the
existence of these recessions could be explained by the basic pre-
Keynesian framework for understanding recession, a fault in the
structure of production. None of it was due, as Davis writes, to "a
lack of aggregate demand" or a "chronic lack of consumption".
Yet it was upon Keynes's polemical attack on Ricardo at the very
start of the General Theory that the most profound revolution in
economic theory has been based. As it turns out, however, it was
Ricardo rather than Malthus who was right, not only about the nature
of the recessions through which both he and Malthus lived, but also,
and more importantly, about the validity of the law of markets
which helped economists for more than a century understand
what they saw.
It nevertheless remains the judgement of textbooks to this day that
Ricardo, one of the finest minds every associated with economics,
had been unable to understand the nature of the recessions which he
lived in the midst of. What Davis has done, in providing a detailed understanding of the
actual economic circumstances of Ricardo's time,
is provide additional evidence that the Keynesian Revolution was
built on a false premise which has implications not just for the
history of economics, but for the very nature of economic
theory itself.
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