------------ EH.NET BOOK REVIEW --------------
Published by EH.NET (July 2006)
Susan B. Carter, Scott Sigmund Gartner, Michael R. Haines, Alan L.
Olmstead, Richard Sutch, and Gavin Wright, editors, _Historical
Statistics of the United States, Volume One: Population_. New York:
Cambridge University Press, 2006. xxviii + 807 pp. $825 (for the
five-volume set), ISBN: 0-521-85389-3.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Trevon D. Logan, Department of Economics, Ohio
State University.
When I was in graduate school, Ken Wachter once said that you could
define the size of the demographic profession by counting everyone
who had a Coale-Demeny life table in their office. If that is true,
counting those with a copy of the _Historical Statistics of the
United States_ in their office could define the group of quantitative
American historians in years past. It has been more than twenty-five
years since a version was published, and there is one question that
everyone seems to have about the new millennial edition: Was it worth
the wait? This question is not merely a straw man. In the years since
the bicentennial edition of _Historical Statistics_, the size and
(more importantly) the quality of historical data have improved many
times over. Even more, contemporary quantitative historians now have
the ability, more so than in the past, to answer microeconomic
questions with individual level historical data. The question "was it
worth the wait?" speaks not only to the quality of the newest
edition, but also its relevance to contemporary quantitative
historical scholarship. As this review will show, however, the answer
for this volume is an unequivocal, enthusiastic "yes." Since no
review of such a large work can hope to completely convey its
contents, below I will sketch out the volume by chapter and follow
with a general assessment of the work as a whole.
The introduction to the volume begins with basic definitions of
population and methods for measuring and accounting for the growth of
the population. It also covers broad changes in American demography
from 1790 to the present as a means of foreshadowing the chapters
that follow. The introduction then moves to a rather detailed
discussion of race and ethnicity, moving from definitions and
historical change in the concepts to the differences in demographic
measures by racial and ethnic categories and a discussion of gender.
This seems to be somewhat misplaced, but there is no other chapter in
the volume where it will fit -- the volume does not include separate
chapters for race and gender, but rather integrates them into other
features of the population. While I agree with this integrated
approach, the discussion of race and gender is well integrated enough
into the successive chapters that the discussion in the introduction
is somewhat unnecessary. Overall, the introduction highlights the
scope and size of the project, and also details the contents that
follow.
The first chapter, on population characteristics, begins with a
caveat about the reliability of Census counts of the population. It
then moves to an excellent overview of the topics covered by the
Census over time (such as education, urbanity, and household
structure). One feature to highlight is the fact that population
estimates for years between the decennial Census from 1790 to 1900
now use the method of change approach, and not linear interpolation.
After detailing regional differences in population growth, the
chapter concludes with a brief discussion of the Hispanic ethnicity
designation. The tables that follow form the majority of the volume,
and will most likely be the most utilized information in the volume.
The tables include population size, density, marital status, rural
and urban location by age, sex and race and summaries of the
foreign-born population. The tables also contain state-by-state
counts of age structure by sex and race, population density, and the
foreign born. These tables form a treasure trove for those looking
for summary population measures both aggregated and disaggregated (by
state) over time.
The second chapter (which, like the first, is written by Michael
Haines of Colgate University) deals with vital statistics of
fertility, mortality, and nuptiality�. It is related to the first in
that it gives the demographic information while the first chapter
largely deals with population counts. The chapter begins by
discussing how the American demographic transition was distinct from
the transitions of Europe in that fertility declines in the United
States predated mortality declines. Moving beyond description, there
is a discussion of some of the theories of America's unique fertility
regime such as Sundstrom and David's, Ransom and Sutch's and the land
availability hypotheses. Next, the chapter records how Census records
can be used to construct some measures of fertility (such as children
per woman), but that they are not as useful for tracking mortality.
This leads to a discussion of estimates of mortality in the past, the
general trend of declining American mortality since the end of the
nineteenth century, and the development of the system of vital
registrations -- which allows for better estimates of mortality and
for estimates of cause of death. Haines is very good at pointing out
what we can and cannot say about fertility and mortality in the past,
and his honest discussion serves as a warning to those who would wish
to view the data that follow as gospel. The tables in this chapter
include fertility, marriage, divorce, birth rates, and death rates by
race; fertility ratios; and life expectancy by race and sex. There is
an extensive collection of tables relating to infant mortality
(including neonatal mortality, maternal mortality, and the fetal
death rate by race). This is followed by cause of death tables, which
highlight the conquest of mortality due to infectious disease in the
twentieth century. The size and quality of the information on
mortality are especially noteworthy given the caveat in the
introductory note. Of special interest to demographers, the tables
also include information on cohort survival (lx) necessary to
construct life tables by race and sex over time.
Chapters 3 and 4 detail migration, both internal (chapter 3) and
external (chapter 4). Joseph Ferrie of Northwestern University begins
chapter 3 by noting that movements in internal population are an
important aspect of American history. While the calculation of
internal migration is straightforward theoretically, there are a
number of data problems that complicate its empirical measurement. As
such, the chapter is the most focused on data and methodology in the
volume, but is also careful to highlight general trends. The tables
that follow include migration by type and also changes in farm
population over time. Our inability to measure internal migration
accurately in the past does limit the interpretation of the data
Ferrie provides. Chapter 4, by Bob Barde of UC-Berkeley and Susan
Carter and Richard Sutch of UC-Riverside, starts with a technical
definition of immigration and then moves to a discussion of the
unique features of American immigration (the number immigrants, the
number of nations involved, the lack of an American Diaspora). The
chapter then details the American immigration experience, breaking
the historical experience into three periods (1815-1920, 1920-1965,
and 1965-present) which coincides with changes in immigration policy.
It also covers the related (but distinct) topic of naturalization. As
a reading, this chapter is a great introduction to both the history
and politics of immigration in the United States. The tables that
follow give immigration and emigration by country of departure;
immigration by sex, race and age; admission numbers and demographics
by immigration regime; and counts of persons naturalized.
The chapter on family and household composition, by Steven Ruggles of
the University of Minnesota, is next. He begins by noting that
previous editions of _Historical Statistics_ did not contain any
information about changes in families and households. He then details
the problems of trying to look at trends over time as definitions of
households and family have changed not only in the social psychology
but also by government reporting standards. He also highlights some
broad changes in household structure such as the decline in
multigenerational households and the rise of single-parent,
cohabiting, and single-person household. The ensuing tables give
counts of households by race and sex of the household head;
subfamilies; institution type; marital status of mothers with
children by race; and the living arrangements of those aged 65 and
over. Susan Carter's chapter on cohort analysis is important to the
extent that the previous chapters in the volume are period
demographic measures� -- that is, they are counts of persons and
demographic phenomena at a point in time and therefore apply only to
an imagined (synthetic) cohort. Cohort analysis is important since
events experienced by cohorts can influence their lives and because
period trends may not hold when subjected to cohort analysis, leading
us to modify our interpretation of events and their consequences.
Carter highlights these two facts in her chapter, and follows it with
tables that show labor force participation, marriage, and education
by age and sex by birth cohort.
The final chapter, by C. Matthew Snipp of Stanford University, is
concerned with the demography of Native Americans. Snipp begins with
coverage of the unique history that Native Americans have had in the
United States, and also with the puzzle that, despite numerous
documented interactions between the United States government and
various tribes since colonial times, there is relatively little
evidence about Native American demography. Snipp then lists the
sources of information, taking great care to highlight the inherent
caveats when dealing with the topic. The tables that follow are a
unique resource, detailing the number of tribes; their size and
populations by state; the demography of reservations, terminations of
tribes; and the employment, occupations, and education of Native
Americans.
In total, this volume of _Historical Statistics_ is a triumph. The
chapters provide first-rate introductions to their general area of
focus, particularly helpful for researchers and students who are not
specialists in either history or demography. Each chapter reading is
informative without being burdensome. The voluminous tables are
carefully documented and legible, and are disaggregated enough that
one may look at interesting features by themselves. While researchers
now seem to favor micro-based population research, this volume
impresses upon me the importance of looking in the aggregate at
underlying demographic trends. Demography is truly unique in that the
individual measure directly relates to the population measure. As
such, this volume complements the contemporary research agenda in
quantitative history quite nicely by providing a background to core
demographic measures. It is also quite useful for those whose
research falls outside of these areas but who need measures for
certain demographic phenomena at a point (and place) in time. The
availability of the underlying data in electronic format gives a nod
to the fact that the editors understand that the information in these
volumes will form the backbone and background of many research
projects. Given its numerous sources and size, this volume is a
testament to the value of large-scale historical projects and also
the value of interdisciplinary work. This work will not only be
useful for quantitative American historians, but also for those in
the social sciences and history in general who wish to put their
research into historical and comparative perspective.
Trevon D. Logan is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Ohio State
University and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of
Economic Research. Forthcoming publications include "Nutrition and
Well-Being in the Late Nineteenth Century" in _Journal of Economic
History_ and "Food, Nutrition, and Substitution in the Late
Nineteenth Century" in _Explorations in Economic History_.
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Published by EH.Net (July 2006). All EH.Net reviews are archived at
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