Those interested in the Canadian federal election may wish to sign up for
daily tracking results.  See below. - dr

Here we are…yet another federal election. Starting tonight SES and
its partner CPAC, (Canada's Political Channel), will be launching the
CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking Program. Canadians will once again get a
daily pulse on what is likely to be one of Canada's most volatile
campaigns.

For this election SES has enhanced its very successful nightly
tracking initiative. Last election we did a three-day rolling poll of
600 Canadians 18 and over (accurate ±4.1% 19 times out of 20). We
released daily stats on party support, who would make the best Prime
Minister, and the appetite for change. As you remember, SES Research
was the only polling firm that accurately tracked a clear Liberal
pick-up in the close of the campaign, ultimately leading to a Liberal
victory.

For this election the enhanced CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking will consist
of the following:

Sample Size Doubled - The new tracking program will be comprised of a
three day national random telephone sample of 1,200 Canadians 18 and
over (accurate ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20)

New Daily Regional Snapshots on Party Support - Every day of the
campaign CPAC and SES will release a daily look at regional party
support as well as the national snapshot

New Daily Regional Snapshots on Best PM - Best PM tracking will be
released nationally with a regional breakdown.

New daily updates on which federal party leader Canadians think is
the most competent, is the most trustworthy and has the best vision
for the country.

New Leader Index Score that includes a daily index performance score
for each leader (using a combination of competence, trust and vision
stats).

Release of polling seven days a week (instead of five) at 2:00 pm EST

Analysis on CPAC - PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen every
weekday at 8:00 pm EST.

As you might have noticed, we have dropped the appetite for change
measurement.  I found this measure open to misinterpretation. For
example, if polling showed that 54% of Canadians thought it was time
for a change and 39% did not think it was time for a change, in my
opinion this would point to a Liberal victory since 39% of
respondents were willing to stick with the incumbent party. On our
last night of tracking in the last election, 57% of Canadians thought
it was time for a change and yet the Liberals won.

Our new daily measures (trust, competence, vision) in a addition to
our ballot and best PM tracking will allow SES Research to get behind
the top numbers to see what is driving shifts in voter opinion. Many
of our enhancements were a result of the positive feedback and
recommendations from individuals who signed up last year to get their
daily stat report.

If you know of anyone who might be interested in receiving our daily
snapshot of the campaign, forward this note. They should visit the
SES website at www.sesresearch.com and enter their email address in
the "Get Wired" section of our website.

Our first poll will be released this Friday at 2:00 pm EST.

Cheers,
Nik
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Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President, SES Research
613.234.4666 ext. 237
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