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Date: | Tue Jul 18 10:22:28 2006 |
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Fred Foldvary wrote:
> raising the minimum wage today has support among much of
> the population, and some (probably a minority of)
> economists, who think this would generally improve the
> status of low-income families. I presume most economists
> today would regard that proposition as a fallacy.
The "minimum wage fallacy" is the deduction of welfare
effects for low-income families from (often implicit) models
lacking institutional detail and, at a minimum, some
evidence on the elasticity of demand for minimum wage labor
(much of which is part-time, so that fewer hours purchased
need not translate directly to fewer workers hired).
The fallacy often manifests in statements like "economic
theory shows that raising the minimum wage will hurt
low-income families by increasing their unemployment".
Even though the theory invoked is generally
principles-level, the claim is still fallacious. While it
is common in principles courses to demonstrate that in
competitive markets a minimum wage lowers the amount
unskilled labor hours hired and to call that (without
warrant) an increase in unemployment, it is much less common
to explore the implications for incomes (which depends on
the elasticity of demand).
Cheers,
Alan Isaac
PS A visiting lecturer with a Univ of Chicago degree once
described to me how his initial thesis work on the minimum
wage showed no negative employment effect. He said his
advisor viewed this a proof enough (i.e., nothing in the
empirical research was judged methodologically inadequate)
that his initial work was flawed and sent him back to "fix"
it. This was some years before the Card and Kreuger study.
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