Pat,
I fear we are in danger of running in circles here, but...
So, you say it is a "myth" that the financial collapses that
led to the depths of the Great Depression did not reduce AD,
or if they did, it is of little interest, since what is of
interest is what caused the financial collapses. You then
cite Mundell.
Well, I went back and looked at Mundell. He likes fixed
exchange rates, tight monetary policy, and supply-side tax
cuts. He says the world economy worked fine before WW I.
His main argument about how the GD came about was the
botched attempt to reinstall the gold standard at misaligned
exchange rates in the 1920s.
I think there is a lot of truth to that, especially when one
throws in that when the Fed ran a tight monetary policy to
slow down the stock market bubble in the late 1920s, and
then the market crashed, which damaged investor confidence
and hurt AD through wealth effects, the Fed continued to run
a tight monetary policy partly because of the gold
standard. The inflows of gold into the US then pushed other
countries into tightening their monetary policies, which
reduced global AD. Of course, in 1931 all of this came
crashing down in the greatest financial collapse of all
time, with a concomitant collapse of the money supply with
banks failing all over the world, and AD falling through the
floor. Of course, I know you would just as soon keep AD
falling out of it, but it certainly makes it easier (and I
would argue not incorrect, certainly not a "myth") to keep
it in the story.
The other "myth" you cite is that legislatures created
central banks based on the advice of economists to prevent
such financial crashes and recessions/depressions. Well, I
would say that most central banks had little to do with
economists. The early ones in Sweden and the Netherlands
and England, and even the later one in the US, were all
creatures of the banking sectors in all those countries who
wanted a lender of last resort. Certainly central banks
have sometimes messed up, either hyperinflating or, as in
1929, engaging in overly contractionary policy that pushed
AD down, leading to, well, we already know what...
BTW, this is a sideshow, but while Mundell praises the
effect of supply side tax cuts in the 1980s, it should be
kept in mind that if one compares the growth of the US
economy between 1940 and 1964 and since 1981, the latter had
a lower rate, even though the top marginal income tax rate
has not exceeded 50% since 1981, whereas it exceeded 90% for
all of 1940-64. Of course Mundell might fall back on his
main interest and argue that this outcome was due to the
earlier period having mostly fixed exchange rates while the
more recent one has had flexible rates, which he does not
like.
Barkley Rosser
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