Fred and Mason. This is a definition of a real bill, not a
description of the doctrine. The doctrine holds that the issuance of
money based on real bills is non-inflationary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_bills_doctrine
Real bills are not money. Although they can, UNDER ORDINARY
CIRCUMSTANCES, be exchanged for money, they are not money themselves.
They are not generally accepted in exchange. If circumstances are not
ordinary, they may not even be exchangeable for money. Whether a bank
will discount the bills described by Fred depends on whether the
bankers believe that the firm will earn sufficient profit or possess
sufficient wealth to redeem the bills in money. The bills are real
enough. But whether the events will occur that give the bills the
market value that is assumed in Fred's definition is problematic.
To understand the doctrine, consider a bank that uses the asset "real
bills," which it receives from a discounter, as excess reserves. It
loans out new transferable deposits (or prints bank notes) based on
its expectation of the real bills being paid in money by the firm
that issued them. We must make some assumption about timing. If the
real bill is expected to be paid in, say, 60 days; and if the
borrower transfers his deposits today (or the bank note is redeemed),
the bank will have to transfer reserves. Yet it has no new reserves
to transfer. If it can persuade the bank demanding the transfer (or
the redeemer of the note) to accept the firm's "real bill," then
there is no problem. Otherwise, he has no additional reserves to
cover the newly issued transferable deposits. New money has been
issued without new reserves.
The new money is inflationary in the old sense of the term. Inflation
used to mean an increase in the quantity of money. Thus, the doctrine
in terms of the old meaning of inflation is simply fallacious.
But economists have come to use the term "inflation" in a new sense.
They refer to it as a general increase in prices. The new money, if
it is used to buy goods or resources, will certainly, other things
equal, cause a general increase in prices in the SHORT RUN; since the
borrower will bid resources in her direction. Other bidders will have
to pay higher prices and they will pass those higher prices on to
producers of consumer goods. Whether it causes inflation of prices in
the LONG RUN (under the usual assumption of fixed types of consumer
goods) depends on whether it enables purchasing power to be shifted
in such a way that larger quantities of goods can be produced with
the same resources than previously.
Those who promote the real bills doctrine on the basis of the newer
meaning of the term "inflation" must be referring to the long run and
they must be assuming that the new money is used to generate a
sufficient amount of technological advance to offset the inflation of
prices due to the new money.
The reasoning used to support the real bills doctrine expressed in
terms of the newer meaning of inflation does not depend on the
existence of real bills. The same effect could be achieved by an
increase in the quantity of money on any basis, provided that the new
money is used in the specified way.
What, then, can one conclude about the real bills doctrine? It
achieves nothing more than to divert an economist's attention away
from the more fundamental issues related to money and prices. It also
tends to blur the dynamic aspect of economic analysis by blurring the
time element that is necessary in order to analyze money and price
issues properly.
The reasoning used in this analysis comes from Ludwig von Mises's
Theory of Money and Credit and Human Action, although I cannot refer
to a specific passage where he presents this argument in full. But
the following passage from the former book is pertinent:
III.15.30
"It is one of the most remarkable phenomena in the history of
political economy that this fundamental distinction between notes and
bills could have passed unnoticed. It raises an important problem for
investigators into the history of economic theory. And in solving
this problem it will be their principal task to show how the
beginnings of a recognition of the true state of affairs that are to
be found even in the writings of the Classical School and were
further developed by the Currency School, were destroyed instead of
being continued by the work of those who came after.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Mises/msT6.html#III.15.31
Pat Gunning
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