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Thu, 19 Feb 2009 10:48:41 -0500 |
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I've been reading a lot of history books on the 18th century recently
and according to them, the 1720's bubble in England had a very short
lived effect. A slight rise in suicides for the year - granted - but
by 1721 it was business as usual and the South Sea Company itself
continued trading for many years afterwards.
A personal argument in a paper I am writing up at the moment, is that
there was a shift in economic thinking after 1720 focusing on
government debts and government earnings as the benchmark of progress
until about 1740. But this had more to do with English politics, the
stability of 'prime' minister Walpole, The Anglo-French peace and
the royal succession than the relatively small effects of the bubble.
John Law was more of a cause of the French bubble and did influence
opinions afterwards, but again the crisis was not a main driver of
change at that point. I can't think of a reference, but both crisis
and war have tended to influence economic thinking, although the same
can be said for booms and peaceful periods - but during the latter
the effect is harder to isolate in the "before-after" perspective
your friend is thinking about.
I would argue - controversially perhaps - that most economic theory
has come from some concern about the authors current surroundings and
events, and there tends to be more work challenging the consensus in
a crisis (for obvious reasons), although some remain wistfully
unaware of their surroundings. Ricardo comes to mind.
Just my two cents on that account.
Benjamin Mitra-Kahn
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