Assisted by James Ahiakpor's careful research, we may perhaps agree on
the following points:
1. Henry Thornton, David Ricardo, and Alfred Marshall, and perhaps
others too, all developed versions of the cumulative process (CP)
analysis before Wicksell. I would further argue that Thornton was
chronologically the first to present the CP analysis and that his
version was more thorough, complete, subtle, and sophisticated than
either Ricardo's or Marshall's version. But Ahiakpor may not agree.
2. Wicksell was inspired by Ricardo's version and perhaps Marshall's
too, although he didn't cite Marshall.
3. Ricardo, Marshall and company advanced a third reason -- in
addition to (i) diminishing marginal productivity of accumulating
capital stock, and (ii) bankers' hiking of their lending rates to
protect their cash reserves from depletion in the face of inflation-
induced cash drains into internal circulation and into external
outflows through the balance of payments -- to explain why the
differential between the natural and market rates of interest must
eventually vanish, thus ending the cumulative process. That third
reason was that rising prices, by increasing the nominal value of real
investment projects, necessarily increases the demand for bank loans
to finance those investments. The resulting increased loan demand
eventually bids the loan rate into equality with the natural rate.
Ahiakpor quotes Wicksell as saying that banks could keep the
cumulative process going forever causing the price level to rise
without limit. But that's true only in Wicksell's hypothetical pure
credit regime in which the money stock (called "credit" by Wicksell)
consists solely of bank deposits transferable by cheque and there
exists no reserve constraint and/or metallic cash base to limit
expansion of the money stock and price level. But even in this extreme
case in which there is no self-equilibrating market mechanism to
eliminate the gap between market and natural rates of interest,
Wicksell, ever the price-level stabilizationist, proposed that the
central bank supply the missing stabilizing mechanism in the form of a
feedback policy rule. The central bank would follow the rule requiring
it to adjust the market rate of interest in response to general price
movements so as to counter those movements and stabilize prices (and
the stock of bank money) at some desired level.
Actually Wicksell prescribed not one feedback rule but two. The first
directs the central bank to adjust the market rate of interest in the
same direction that prices are moving, stopping only when price
movements cease. In Wicksell's own words: "If prices rise, the rate of
interest is to be raised; and if prices fall, the rate of interest is
to be lowered; and the rate of interest is henceforth to be maintained
at its new level until a further movement of prices calls for a
further change in one direction or another." This quote comes from
page 189 of his 1898 Interest and Prices.
Wicksell's second rule has the central bank adjust the bank rate in
response to price deviations from target. Unlike the first rule, which
seeks merely to halt price movements, the second rule seeks to reverse
and thus negate those movements so as to restore prices to their pre-
existing target level. Thus on page 223 of Volume 2 of his 1906
Lectures on Political Economy Wicksell states that central bankers
must endeavor to reverse or roll back price movements by engaging in
"a raising or lowering of bank rates" in order "to depress the
commodity price level when it showed a tendency to rise and to raise
it when it showed a tendency to fall."
Formal analysis reveals that both rules stabilize prices and money to
a certain extent in Wicksell's CP model. But a combination of both
rules together stabilizes them even more. True, Wicksell did not
propose that both rules be combined into one. But at least he
formulated some form of stabilizing policy rules for his hypothetical
pure credit regime and for mixed cash & credit regimes as well.
Wicksell was as strong an advocate of price-level stability as Irving
Fisher and David Ricardo.
Ahiakpor thinks that Wicksell is overrated and has been given more
credit than he is due. In truth, however, Wicksell added so many
innovations to classical monetary analysis as to merit the economics
profession's esteem. But perhaps that should be the subject of another
post.
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