I would like Robert to respond just on the questions of what explains the gross distortion, in his previous post, of what my report said, and his answers to the three questions I posed.

Although Robert's post here is presented as a response to mine, not one of the points he makes advances the discussion at all. Points 1 and 2 make no difference to anything I have said. The substance of Point 3 was not only agreed but explained in my previous post. Point 4 takes us nowhere except perhaps back to the question of which (suggested) mistake it is that should be discussed. In relation to point 5, I note that Hall and Hart's econometrics have not been in dispute (or not by me anyway). In relation to point 6 I cannot see what it is Robert has not understood or what it is I might clarify. 

The only effect of that last point seems to be that Robert's post ends with an implication that I owe list-subscribers some sort of explanation of something or other. But as I began by indicating, that onus continues to be on Robert.

all best

James
[log in to unmask]



James Forder
Fellow and Tutor in Political Economy
Balliol College Oxford




On 30 Apr 2014, at 00:15, Robert Leeson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> 1. To avoid personalisation, a proposal about the costs and benefits of anonymous refereeing will follow under a separate heading.
> 
> 2. “Paul Samuelson asked me when we were looking at these diagrams (of inflation and unemployment) for the first time, ‘Does that look like a reversible relation to you?’ What he meant was ‘Do you really think the economy can move back and forth along a curve like that?’ And I answered ‘Yeah I’m inclined to believe it,’ and Paul said ‘Me too’” (Solow cited by Leeson 1997. The Political Economy of the Inflation Unemployment Trade-Off. HOPE Spring, 29.1: 117-156).
> 
> 3. The Hall and Hart estimated curve looks nothing like the SSPC. 
> 
> 4. If there is a "mistake" (or mistakes) in an influential paper, it should be discussed in the public domain. 
> 
> 5. If there is a competent econometric response to H and H, that too should be published. 
> 
> 6. If James was not recommending rejection, then the cited excerpt has been misunderstood. Could he clarify?
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "James Forder" <[log in to unmask]>
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Sent: Monday, 28 April, 2014 9:18:20 AM
> Subject: [SHOE] Leeson on Hall and Hart, refereeing
> 
> Well, that raises the temperature. 
> 
> Two points to consider. First, Robert says that the AER published a downward-sloping curve, ‘although the data suggests an upward-sloping relationship’. If one is interested in the simple relationship between inflation and unemployment, Samuelson and Solow’s data for the postwar period suggest a downward-sloping curve more or less as they drew it. (This is obvious from the chart on their page 188). The Hall and Hart point is subtler and result arises from a multiple regression rather than the simple inflation-unemployment relation.
> 
> Second, we have Robert writing:
> 
> ‘The HER referee admits that Samuelson and Solow "made a mistake" and, therefore, ... the issue must not be raised in print?’ 
> 
> Here, Robert has taken three words from the source, incorporated them into a sentence saying something quite different from the original, and appended a conclusion which is nothing whatever to do with anything in the quotation - *nothing whatever* to do with it.
> 
> Perhaps at this stage I had better declare that I am the referee whose report has so offended Robert (although I wrote ‘principal problem’ :)). I wonder whether Robert could address three points:
> 
> 1. From what does Robert form the impression that I thought the issue ‘must not be raised in print’?
> 
> 2. My report suggests (not ‘admits’, if you please) that Samuelson and Solow made a mistake, but not the mistake suggested by Hall and Hart. Robert surely does not mean that if we see one mistake we should support the publication of papers alleging other, different, ones. But then, what does he mean to suggest?
> 
> 3. As I understood Rich Hart’s post, he was reporting that a referee had drawn attention to an apparent weakness in the paper, and the authors had incorporated a footnote to address it. Evidently the paper was then published. What deficiency does Robert detect in this process?
> 
> I wonder whether the explanation is just that Robert’s email was overhasty and he would now like to apologize for it. If so, I would like to have that apology. But if not, I hope he will respond to these points in a way that will make it possible for us to understand what it is that justifies his post.
> 
> James
> [log in to unmask]
> 
> On 22 Apr 2014, at 05:53, Robert Leeson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> 
>> Clarification please.
>> 
>> The journal of the American Economic Association published a highly policy-influential - hand-drawn - downward-sloping curve, although the data suggests an upward-sloping relationship. 
>> 
>> The HER referee admits that Samuelson and Solow "made a mistake" and, therefore, ... the issue must not be raised in print? 
>> 
>> In this instance (as in many others) the costs of referee anonymity outweighs the benefits: shouldn't the referee explain this logic?    
>> 
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "William R (Rich) Hart" <[log in to unmask]>
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Sent: Tuesday, 22 April, 2014 1:05:47 AM
>> Subject: Re: [SHOE] Samuelson and Solow on the Phillips curve
>> 
>> In response to Robert Dimand.
>> 
>> We estimated the Samuelson and Solow Phillips curve (SSPC) over the 25 year 
>> period 1934 to 1958 because Samuelson and Solow (1960, 192, Figure 2) state 
>> in the caption to their hand-drawn Phillips curve: “…roughly estimated from 
>> the last twenty-five years of American data.”  They did not say ‘…roughly 
>> estimated from the last twenty-five years of American data excluding the war 
>> years.’ So, in the first instance, we included the war years because 
>> Samuelson and Solow seemingly included the war years.
>> 
>> Second, Dimand claims we ignored problems with the WWII data in our HER 
>> paper despite this having been brought to our attention in referee comments 
>> at another journal. We were well aware of the problems with the WWII data 
>> (who isn’t?) just as Samuelson and Solow were surely aware. We did not 
>> ignore this issue (see below) so much as we considered it irrelevant to the 
>> main purpose of our paper. Our paper was not about data problems or about 
>> what data Samuelson and Solow should or should not have used in their 
>> ‘estimate’ of the Phillips curve (hence, what data we should or should not 
>> have used in our estimate). The primary purpose of our paper was much less 
>> ambitious—-it was to answer a simple question: in 1959-60 could Samuelson 
>> and Solow, using the data they said they used and employing simple, 
>> straightforward econometric techniques available at the time, produce the 
>> Phillips curve they claimed as fitting the data over the twenty-five year 
>> period 1934 to 1958? Our answer was no, a resounding no. Given that the SSPC 
>> paper is one of the most widely read and widely cited papers in the 
>> profession, one would think our results would/should be of interest to 
>> economic historians.    
>> 
>> More directly to Dimand’s claim that we ignored problems with the WWII data 
>> in our HER paper, he is correct if by ignore he means we did not re-estimate 
>> the SSPC over the 1934 to 1958 period excluding the war years. We did not do 
>> this. However, it is incorrect to claim that we totally ignored the WWII 
>> data problems.   
>> 
>> One HER referee recommended rejection because:
>> 
>> "The principle problem is this. In their scatter plot of data on page 188, 
>> Samuelson and Solow have circled 13 points (it is not clear exactly how many 
>> there are) and said that the circled points are ones from 'recent years'.  
>> It is visually pretty obvious that the hand drawn Phillips curve on page 
>> 192, although described as based on 25 years, is in fact based on the 
>> circled points. .... My conclusion is that Samuelson and Solow made a 
>> mistake in the way they described the hand-drawn curve. They did not in fact 
>> use 25 years of data, they used 13, and their hand drawn curve is about 
>> right."
>> 
>> In response to this comment, we re-estimated the SSPC over the period 1947-
>> 1958.  As we discuss in footnote 16 of the HER paper, the re-estimated SSPC 
>> (that excludes WWII data) still does NOT fit the hand-drawn SSPC. The re-
>> estimated SSPC, like the Phillips curve estimated over the twenty-five 
>> period 1934-1958, is also hump-shaped—-the unemployment rate and inflation 
>> move in the same direction for unemployment rates below 4% and move in 
>> opposite direction for unemployment rates above 4%.
>> 
>> Finally, Dimand’s comment brings to mind the many obstacles we faced in 
>> getting this paper published. Samuelson and Solow hand-drew a downward-
>> sloping Phillips curve based on a 25-year period that includes WWII and nary 
>> a peep of concern. Using their data, we estimate the Phillips curve over the 
>> same twenty-five year period in an attempt to replicate their results (using 
>> a statistical technique that would be exceedingly difficult to manipulate), 
>> find that their results cannot be replicated, and are subject to a barrage 
>> of criticism.        
>>