Dear Alan,
Intriguing, though the decline of the rate of growth since the 1970s at least is a well-known stylized fact.
The paper repository requires access to my personal information, which I do not want to grant.
Is it possible to post it on a less demanding site?
All best,
Yours truly, Avner Offer
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From Avner Offer, Chichele Professor Emeritus of Economic History, University of Oxford
All Souls College, High St., Oxford OX1 4AL, tel. +44 (0)7551960880
email: [log in to unmask]
personal website:
Most recent books:
-The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy and the Market Turn
(Princeton University Press, 2016). http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10841.html
-Burn Mark: A Photographic Memoir of the Six Day War (Lintel Press, 2014). See www.avneroffer.net
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From: Societies for the History of Economics <[log in to unmask]> on behalf of [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: 27 January 2019 18:40
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [SHOE] Sixty-year decline in the growth rate of the industrialised countries
Dear Friends
Our data group has been researching the long-run history of growth and came up with a result that surprised me to some extent, although theoretically it confirms Keynes’ views on the stationary state. It seems that the average growth rate of the industrialised countries has been declining, with only (historically) minor cyclic departures, since the early 1950s. The trend is strong and robust and is confirmed for a variety of measures of growth, and definitions of the industrialised countries.
I am intrigued that this appears to have been overlooked or at least, is not widely known or referred to. So I wonder if in fact, other research has come up with similar results. If anyone knows of such, do get in touch.
The paper is here: https://www.academia.edu/38192121/The_sixty-year_downward_trend_of_economic_growth_in_the_industrialised_countries_of_the_world
Readers may also be interested in the data repository which we are constructing for long-run macroeconomic data: https://github.com/axfreeman/Economic-History. If anyone shares our interest in curating historical macroeconomic data, or has data that they wish to be shared with a wider community, do please get in touch.
Regards
Alan
Research Director
Geopolitical Economy Research Group
(www.geopoliticaleconomy.org<http://www.geopoliticaleconomy.org>)
University of Manitoba
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