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Wed, 4 Feb 2009 19:48:52 -0500 |
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James Henderson wrote:
>Given the current economic situation and Gaffney's concerns, how
>about Friedman's remark --
>
>"We are all Keynesians now" in the December 31, 1965 edition of Time magazine.
Milton Friedman (1968, p. 15) clarifies that the Time magazine quote
was a misrepresentation of what he said: "in one sense, we are all
Keynesians now; in another, no one is a Keynesian any longer. We all
use the Keynesian language. and apparatus; none of us any longer
accepts the initial Keynesian conclusions." That is a long way off
the impression one gets from the Time magazine quote.
I also wonder why some are so quick to draw comparisons between the
current US economic situation and conditions of the Great Depression.
Unemployment in all of 2008 averaged less than 7% and economic growth
averaged about -0.1% (0.9% Q1, 3.3%Q2, -0.5%Q3, -3.8%Q4); the price
level is still rising, not falling as in the Great Depression, and M1
and M2 are rising rather than contracting as in the Great Depression.
We have the FDIC protecting people's deposits unlike in the early
1930s when the fear of losing deposits led to massive withdrawals
into cash hoarding (8 billion between 1930 and 1933) with 2,000 banks
failing each of those years. The rate of unemployment was 7.5% in
1992 and 9.7% in 1982, but I don't recall people talking about "the
worst economic depression" since the Great Depression in those
days. I think historians of economic thought would help greatly by
assisting in interpreting economic events in context rather than
joining in the fear mongering that has been in the air since the
summer of 2007.
As for Gaffney's concerns, he should consult the relevant literature
documenting Irving Fisher's numerous activities and recommendations
of policy to address the falling price level during the early 1930s
as a means of dealing with the Depression. Throwing accusations at
Fisher for not having done much, if anything, to address conditions
in those days might be excusable if they came from someone who didn't
claim an interest in or familiarity with the history of economic
thought, I think.
James Ahiakpor
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