I guess this thread is sort of winding down, but to give an answer
that is more directly tied to David Colander's original question, I
would note that indeed the idea of macroeconomic declines being
largely due to declines of investment following collapses of
financial institutions following collapses of speculative bubbles was
indeed a widespread view in the nineteenth century, arguably the most
widespread theory of "business cycles" extant at the time, including
by some who believed in Say's Law, with this being a sort of early
version of a Fisher-Minsky-Bernanke financial fragility model of
macro fluctuations. In any case, both Minsky and Kindleberger were
aware of the following quotation from John Stuart Mill, which lays
the front end of it out (1848, Book II, Chap. 9, Section 3):
"The inclination of the mercantile public to increase their
demand for commodities by making use of all or much of their credit
as a purchasing power depends on their expectation of profit. When
there is a general impression that the price of some commodity is
likely to rise from an extra demand, a short crop, obstructions to
importation, or any other cause, there is a disposition among dealers
to increase their stocks in order to profit by the expected rise.
This disposition tends in itself to produce the effect which it looks
forward to ---a rise of price; and, if the rise is considerable and
progressive, other speculators are attracted, who, as long as the
price has not begun to fall, are willing to believe that it will
continue rising. These by further purchases, produce a further
advance, and thus a rise in price, for which there were originally
some rational grounds, is often heightened by merely speculative
purchases, until it greatly exceeds what the original grounds will
justify. After a time this begins to be perceived, the price ceases
to to rise, and the holders, thinking it time to realize their gains,
are anxious to sell. Then the price begins to decline, the holders
rush into the market to avoid a still greater loss, and, few being
willing to buy in a falling market, the price falls much more
suddenly than it rose. Those who have bought at a higher price than
reasonable calculation justified, and who have been overtaken by the
revulsion before they had realized, are losers in proportion to the
greatness of the fall and to the quantity of the commodity which they
hold, or have bound themselves to pay for."
Barkley Rosser
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