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EH.NET BOOK REVIEW
Published by EH.NET (October 1997)
Barry J. Eichengreen, _Globalizing Capital: A History of the International
Monetary System_. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996. viii + 223
pp. $24.95 (cloth), ISBN: 0-691-02880-X.
Reviewed for EH.NET by George Selgin, Department of Economics, University
of Georgia. <[log in to unmask]>
In 1892 the English economist Robert Giffen published an article entitled
"Fancy Monetary Standards." Objecting to a recent proposal for a new
monetary standard aimed at stabilizing the purchasing power of money,
Giffen observed that "Governments, when they meddle with money, are so apt
to make blunders...that a nation which has a good money should beware of
its being tampered with." If we mess with the gold standard, in other
words, "we can never tell...what confusion and mischief we may be
introducing." (1)
A generation later, the gold standard was not only tampered with, but
largely dismantled. The international monetary system has been witness to
a great deal of "confusion and mischief" ever since, including such "fancy"
payments arrangements as the IMF, the EPU, the BIS and the EMS, elaborate
multinational structures designed by international committees, and
regularly shorn-up by exchange controls, stand-by arrangements, SDR's,
gold-pools, and other ad-hoc devices aimed at forestalling major
devaluations.
The ultimate failure of all such arrangements, as well as the abandonment
of the international gold standard itself, has led Berkeley economist Barry
Eichengreen to wonder whether any system of fixed, or at least relatively
stable, exchange rates can survive in a world of democratic governments.
His book, _Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary
System_, supplies a negative answer. Elaborating a thesis put forth by
Karl Polanyi in 1944, Eichengreen argues that modern democratic governments
are bound to yield to pressures to pursue goals, such as the avoidance of
cyclical unemployment, that conflict with the maintenance of fixed or
pegged exchange rates. The history of the international monetary system,
according to Eichengreen, is largely a history of major governments'
gradual, grudging acknowledgment of a conflict between internal and
external monetary stability, and their generally unsuccessful efforts to
overcome the conflict by means of international cooperation. Eichengreen's
book tells the story in four meaty but easily digested chapters (plus an
introduction and conclusion, both very brief), covering the gold standard,
the interwar period, the Bretton Woods System, and post-Bretton Woods
developments.
Eichengreen's general thesis offers a useful starting point for
understanding the often Byzantine political economy of international
monetary relations, and he is at his best when offering pithy public-choice
explanations for major international monetary developments. For example,
Eichengreen accounts for Germany's seemingly self-destructive support for
monetary union by noting that "Germany desired not just an integrated
European market, but also deeper political integration in the context of
which [it] might gain a foreign policy role. Monetary union was the quid
pro quo." Not the last word, perhaps, but as good and succinct an
explanation as I've read so far.
Some of Eichengreen's explanations are perhaps a little too simple, as when
he attributes the dollar's decline after the mid-1980s to the fact that an
overvalued currency "imposes high costs on concentrated interests," whereas
an undervalued currency "imposes only modest costs on diffuse interests."
(Just how does America's involvement in the Louvre Accord of 1987--a failed
attempt to restrain the fall of the dollar--square with this public-choice
insight? Could it be that the dollar's decline was simply unavoidable?)
I also wonder whether Eichengreen's main point concerning the
incompatibility of democracy with stable exchange rates really gets to the
root cause of the move to floating exchange rates. In some loose sense, of
course, democratic pressures fueled the abandonment of the international
gold standard and of later schemes for pegging exchange rates. But we
should not forget the context: previous changes in domestic monetary
arrangements that subjected money to government control. Of particular
importance was the establishment of central banks, which removed the
enforcement of the gold- standard mechanism from the hands of private,
competing bankers, increasing the risk of both a suspension of payments and
subsequent yielding to inflationary pressures. Twentieth-century voters
might never have developed a taste for accommodative monetary policies had
non-democratic governments of previous centuries not set a precedent for
such policies by reshaping monetary arrangements to serve their own fiscal
ends. After all, the survival of the prewar regime was not so much a
reflection of governments' "single minded pursuit of exchange rate
stability" (as Eichengreen claims) as it was a largely unintentional
byproduct of private financial firms' contractual obligations to their
customers.
Eichengreen also tends, in my view, to overstate the extent to which
democratic nations must rely upon accommodative central bank policies,
unhindered by fixed exchange rates, to avoid financial and macroeconomic
turmoil. For example, in discussing the success of recent currency
board-like arrangements, he argues that they have worked best where
banking systems have been heavily internationalized, treating the openness
of a nation's banking system as a given. But that openness is itself to
some extent at least a matter of policy. The voters may well favor
demand-management approaches to structural alternatives for avoiding
financial instability; but this preference has more to do with
special-interest politics standing in the way of desirable structural
reforms than with sound economic theory.
Nor is it altogether obvious that the international gold standard promoted
internal macroeconomic instability. Although the standard proved
deflationary until the mid-1890s, this deflation does not seem to have
stifled economic growth. (Even Marshall, whom Eichengreen cites as a
critic of gold, suggested that the deflation might actually have been
beneficial.) This isn't to deny that the nineteenth century was marked by
numerous financial crises in some countries; but those crises and later
ones as well had more to do with faulty financial legislation than with any
shortage of gold. Thus Scotland, with its relatively free banking system,
was largely untouched by the banking crises that forced English banks to
seek last-resort aid while also forcing the Bank of England to increase its
fiduciary issue; and during the 1907 "credit squeeze" in the
United States, private Canadian banks helped make up for a shortage of U.S.
currency due in large part to legal restrictions on U.S. banks. (The
Canadian banks ran into legal limits themselves, which were then loosened.)
The restored gold standard of the 20s and 30s was another matter entirely.
Here central banks played an active role, mainly by trying to run the gold
standard on the cheap, supplementing gold reserves with holdings of foreign
exchange (instead of further devaluing their currencies or enduring more
deflation so as to achieve a higher, sustainable relative price of gold).
This cartel-like arrangement could only work so long as creditor central
banks resisted the temptation to cash in their foreign exchange holdings.
It was, consequently, far more vulnerable to speculative collapse than its
prewar counterpart.
In short, while Eichengreen credits "collaboration among central banks and
governments" with the maintenance of the gold standard, I am inclined to
think that government and central bank involvement tended to undermine the
gold standard's success. The Canadian case is again relevant here, for
Canada had little difficulty maintaining its gold standard until 1914
while avoiding financial crises without the help of a central bank, even
while experiencing massive capital inflows. The point is of fundamental
importance, because it suggests that, notwithstanding what Keynes argued in
1941, a stable exchange rate regime might be just as "automatic" and
unreliant upon the chimera of "international cooperation" as one based
upon free-floating rates.
On the whole, though, I highly recommend Eichengreen's book. It is largely
compelling, thought-provoking, highlyinformative, and a pleasure to read.
1. Robert Giffen, "Fancy Monetary Standards," in _Economic Inquiries and
Studies_ (London: George Bell and Sons, 1904),
pp. 168-9.
George Selgin
Department of Economics
University of Georgia
George Selgin is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of
Georgia. His recent publications include _Less Than Zero: The Case for a
Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy_ (London: Institute of Economic
Affairs, 1997) and _Bank Deregulation and Monetary Order_ (London:
Routledge, 1996).
Copyright (c) 1997 by EH.Net and H-Net, all rights reserved. This work may
be copied for non-profit educational use if proper credit is given to the
author and the list. For other permission, please contact
[log in to unmask] (Robert Whaples, Book Review Editor, EH.Net.
Telephone: 910-758-4916. Fax: 910-758-6028.)
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