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Date: | Fri Mar 31 17:18:25 2006 |
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You need to add two elements to the story to be able to explain
the role of the Fed in contributing to the length and duration
of the fall of the economy from 1929-1933.
First, focusing on the money stock (however defined) is not
as useful as focusing on the fall in prices. Prices fell by
one-third in four years. THAT'S A LOT.
Whether or not the Fed could have done anything to reverse
that process, the fact is that everything they did would have
contributed to that process, and they didn't care.
Second, bank failures were intensely regional. Disasters in
some places, no big deal in others. The structural disruption
was thus very uneven, but the overall impact of having some
areas fall apart completely while others were stable turned out
to be disruptive to the whole nation. There have been some
good studies comparing the Canadian system, which was more
stable through all this, to the American system and its idiotic
unitary banking laws. The troubled regions were isolated, and
that really hurt them. (Check out You Can't Go Home Again by
Thomas Wolfe for a great description of a North Carolina banking
panic.)
If you put it together, with dramatically falling prices
and serious structural disruption in a very short period of time,
you get a better picture of what was going on. And with prices
falling so rapidly, deflationary expectations would have rendered
the real interest rate higher than the nominal rate. Hence the
lack of interest in borrowing and investing.
First-person accounts, BTW, really stress the disruption in
individual's lives of having a nearby S & L fail. And I am
personally fascinated by the stories of scrip being used by
local governments and the utility companies in Phiadelphia and
New Jersey, and other areas.
-- Mary Schweitzer
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