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Fri Mar 31 17:18:37 2006 |
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In reply to your message of MON 10 JUL 1995 04:50:29 EDT |
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As Esther-Mirjam Sent aptly suggests, the question is what constitutes
"proof" in empirical social (or for that matter natural) science.
Rather than talk of "proof" we could perhaps talk of soundness of
argument. As so much of the rhetoric of economics literature has made
clear, this is a complex subject. Let me offer one take on it.
One thing that many natural scientists do to try to establish the
reliability of their empirical work is to make sure that it can be
replicated. Clearly specifying one's data, the kind of equipment one is
using, the computer software used to analyze it etc. are all ways of
letting other researchers retrace the scientist's steps to see whether
the same result would occur.
One could argue that the process of scholarly reference and citation in
the history of economics is analogous to the replication process in
the natural and social sciences. What careful and accurate scholarship
does is to say to one's reader "Go back and retrace my sources and look
at what they said and did and try to understand why I would draw my
conclusions from this." Of course such a process can never be "proof"
nor should we expect all reasonable readers of sources to come to the
same conclusions. Nonetheless, careful scholarship, in this sense,
is necessary (although, again, not sufficient) to generate quality
arguments and any degree of scholarly consensus.
To hold ourselves to standards of "proof" beyond this is a sure path to
permanent disappointment. Vain hopes for extra-human standards of
proof need to be replaced with realistic hopes for human standards of
discourse, scholarship, and scholarly consensus.
Steve Horwitz
St. Lawrence University
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