The following is provided as a courtesy of the International Development
Network at http://www.idn.org/

Please note that as of 9:00 PM EST, UNFPA had not yet posted the report
to their web site.
______________________________________________________________________

As World Population Nears 6 Billion, Record Numbers of Young and Old
Spell Need for Stronger Social Programmes

UNFPA Releases "The State of World Population 1998: The New Generations"
Today

New York, 2 September 1998 (IDN) -- Global population growth is slowing,
thanks to successful family planning programmes. But because of past
high fertility, world population will continue to grow by over 80
million a year for at least the next decade. In mid-1999, the total will
pass 6 billion twice what it was in 1960.

More young people than ever are entering their childbearing years. At
the same time, the number and proportion of people over 65 are
increasing at an unprecedented rate. The rapid growth of these young and
old "new generations" is challenging societies' ability to provide
education and health care for the young, and social, medical and
financial support for the elderly.

The challenges–and opportunities–posed by the changing shape of the
global population are the focus of The State of World Population 1998
report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Dr. Nafis Sadik,
UNFPA's Executive Director, will release the report today in London.
Other Fund officials will hold press conferences at sites around the
world.

Falling fertility and smaller families have prompted recent
well-publicized claims that the "population explosion" is over. On the
contrary, the UNFPA report points out, world population will continue to
grow substantially for at least another 50 years. In 2050 it will be
between 7.7 and 11.2 billion, with 9.4 billion considered most likely.
Much of the growth will be due to "population momentum", the inevitable
result of high birth rates in the recent past. How much population will
grow beyond that will depend largely on action taken in the next 10
years enabling couples and individuals to exercise their right to
reproductive choice.

In some developing regions over the next two decades, young people will
swell the workforce compared to older and younger dependants. This will
create a temporary opportunity to build human capital and spur long-term
development, before dependency levels go up again as populations age. To
take advantage of this "demographic bonus", the report emphasizes,
countries need to invest in education, jobs and health services,
including reproductive health care.

Investments enabling women to choose when and whether to have children
will help to ensure their contribution to development. This will also
reduce abortion, reinforce the trend towards smaller and healthier
families and slower population growth, and ease the course to
sustainable development.
Young people in and out of school, the report states, need more and
better education and information about sexuality, including how to avoid
pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases. Those who are sexually
active need sensitive counselling and access to family planning
services.

Declining fertility and mortality will produce a gradual demographic
shift towards an older population in all countries over the next few
decades. With smaller families, parents will increasingly have fewer
children to support them in old age. As people live longer and more
independently, a variety of forms of support for the elderly–including
voluntary programmes as well as public systems–will become more
important.

In response to rising numbers of older people, many industrialized
countries are considering reforms such as increasing the age of
eligibility for public-sector pension funds. Whatever their design, the
UNFPA report stresses, old-age security systems should guarantee a basic
level of services to all, paying special attention to the needs of the
most vulnerable, including the poorest, women–who make up a majority of
the elderly–and the "oldest old".

Ageing populations will strain medical systems in many developing
countries which are still struggling to protect the health of younger
age groups. The burden of disease will shift to older ages over the next
several decades. Nevertheless, the report contends, health services
should not be reoriented towards treatment of diseases affecting older
people at the expense of preventive programmes and services for poorer
and less healthy people of all ages.

The rapid growth of adolescent and elderly populations demands a
considerable investment in: health care including reproductive health
information and services; education and job training for the young; and
social and financial support for the elderly. Such investments have
enormous practical benefits. Better health, social and financial support
services can take the place of large families in providing for old age;
encourage smaller, healthier, better-educated families; and enable older
people to remain healthy, independent and productive longer.

However, the report warns, declines in development assistance, economic
crises and reductions in social expenditures threaten the progress made
over the past few decades and cast a cloud over the future. Although
many developing countries have increased their spending for reproductive
health and population programmes, donor support remains well below the
internationally agreed target for the year 2000.

A lack of funds to meet the global demand for contraception would result
in millions of additional unintended or unwanted pregnancies and
abortions, tens of thousands of additional maternal deaths, and at least
a million more infant and child deaths each year during 1995-2000.

The State of World Population 1998: The New Generations is available on
the UNFPA website at http://www.unfpa.org/, and from United Nations
Publications, DC-2, Room 853, New York, NY 10017, USA ($9.95 per copy
plus $5 per order for shipping and handling).