[Selections by Humberto Barreto for SHOE list.]
nep-hpe <https://nep.repec.org/nep-hpe.html> New Economics Papers
<https://nep.repec.org/> on History and Philosophy of Economics
Issue of 2023‒11‒20
papers chosen by
Erik Thomson <http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pth72.htm>,
University of Manitoba <http://umanitoba.ca/>
------------------------------
1. The birth of (a robust) Arbitrage Theory in de Finetti's early
contributions
<https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_-4087115372224601569_p1> By Marco
Maggis <http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Marco%20Maggis>
2. Boisguilbert's use of political arithmetic to denounce the illusions
and the disorder of the reign of Louis XIV.
<https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_-4087115372224601569_p2> By Jean
Daniel BOYER
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Jean%20Daniel%20BOYER>
3. Can Economists Predict Recessions?
<https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_-4087115372224601569_p4> By Jeremy
Majerovitz
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Jeremy%20Majerovitz>
4. The Economics of Attention
<https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_-4087115372224601569_p5> By George
Loewenstein
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=George%20Loewenstein>
; Zachary Wojtowicz
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Zachary%20Wojtowicz>
5. Is Arrow's Dictator a Drinker?
<https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_-4087115372224601569_p6> By Jeffrey
Uhlmann
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Jeffrey%20Uhlmann>
6. Industrial Policy and the Great Divergence
<https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_-4087115372224601569_p7> By Réka
Juhász
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=R%C3%A9ka%20Juh%C3%A1sz>
; Claudia Steinwender
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Claudia%20Steinwender>
------------------------------
1. The birth of (a robust) Arbitrage Theory in de Finetti's early
contributions <http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2310.07291>
By: Marco Maggis
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Marco%20Maggis>
Abstract: \textit{Il significato soggettivo della probabilit\`a} (1931)
by B. de Finetti \cite{deF} is unanimously considered the rise of
`subjectivism', a notion which strongly influenced both Probability and
Decision Theory. What is less acknowledge is that \cite{deF} posed the
foundations of modern arbitrage theory. In this paper we aim at examining
how de Finetti's contribution should be considered as the precursor of
Asset Pricing Theory and we show how his findings relate to recent
developments in Robust Finance.
Date: 2023–10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.07291&r=hpe
2. Boisguilbert's use of political arithmetic to denounce the illusions
and the disorder of the reign of Louis XIV.
<http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-35>
By: Jean Daniel BOYER
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Jean%20Daniel%20BOYER>
Abstract: In this article we show that Boisguilbert could be considered
a forerunner of the employment of quantitative analysis in economics. To
ground our analysis, we examine Boisguilbert’s possible links with British
political arithmetic and set out the influence this may have had on his
thought and on his estimations of the wealth of the kingdom of France and
the income of the king. Reconstructing the data Boisguilbert uses, we also
show that his analysis of public revenues and good price is grounded on the
distinction he makes between current and constant prices. On this basis,
echoing Gramont’s analysis (1620), Boisguilbert seeks to reveal the
monetary illusion to which he perceived his contemporaries as having fallen
victim. Against popular opinion, Boisguilbert estimates that while the
current revenues of Louis XIV have increased, his real revenues have in
fact decreased. This proves that the French tax system is highly imperfect.
According to his estimations, the real price of grain is also
disproportionate: far from being too high, it is in fact half what it
should be. We thus see Boisguilbert using quantitative analysis to identify
the causes of the ruin of the kingdom of France, to dissipate the illusions
of his contemporaries, and to propose ways of restoring the good order.
Keywords: Boisguilbert, crisis, Gramont, monetary illusion, order,
proportion, Petty, political arithmetic, quantitative analysis, wealth.
JEL: B11 E02 E21 E31
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?jel=B11%20E02%20E21%20E31>
Date: 2023
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-35&r=hpe
3. Can Economists Predict Recessions?
<http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:l00001:96928>
By: Jeremy Majerovitz
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Jeremy%20Majerovitz>
Abstract: An analysis of 55 years of data from the Survey of
Professional Forecasters suggests that quarter-ahead recession forecasts
are fairly accurate but still have a great deal of uncertainty.
Keywords: recessions; recession forecasts; forecasting; Survey of
Professional Forecasters
Date: 2023–09–26
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:96928&r=hpe
4. The Economics of Attention
<http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10712>
By: George Loewenstein
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=George%20Loewenstein>
; Zachary Wojtowicz
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Zachary%20Wojtowicz>
Abstract: Attention is a pivotal resource in the modern economy and
plays an increasingly prominent role in economic analysis. We summarize
research on attention from both psychology and economics, placing a
particular emphasis on its capacity to explain numerous documented
violations of classical economic theory. We also propose promising new
directions for future research, including attention-based utility, the
recent proliferation of attentional externalities introduced by digital
technology, the potential for artificial intelligence to compete with human
attention, and the significant role that boredom, curiosity, and other
motivational states play in determining how people allocate attention.
Keywords: attention, motivation, behavioural bias, information,
learning, education, artificial intelligence, machine learning, future of
work
JEL: D83 D90 D91 I00
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?jel=D83%20D90%20D91%20I00>
Date: 2023
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10712&r=hpe
5. Is Arrow's Dictator a Drinker?
<http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2310.04917>
By: Jeffrey Uhlmann
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Jeffrey%20Uhlmann>
Abstract: We critique the formulation of Arrow's no-dictator condition
to show that it does not correspond to the accepted informal/intuitive
interpretation. This has implications for the theorem's scope of
applicability.
Date: 2023–10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.04917&r=hpe
6. Industrial Policy and the Great Divergence
<http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10675>
By: Réka Juhász
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=R%C3%A9ka%20Juh%C3%A1sz>
; Claudia Steinwender
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?aus=Claudia%20Steinwender>
Abstract: We discuss recent work evaluating the role of the government
in shaping the economy during the long 19th century, a practice we refer to
as industrial policy. We show that states deployed a vast variety of
different policies aimed at, primarily, but not exclusively, fostering
industrialization. We discuss the thin, but growing literature that
evaluates the economic effects of these policies. We highlight some
fruitful avenues for future study.
Keywords: industrial policy, first wave of globalization,
industrialization, infant industry protection, technology policy, transport
infrastructure, telegraph, 19th century
JEL: L50 N10 N40 N60
<http://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/search.pf?jel=L50%20N10%20N40%20N60>
Date: 2023
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10675&r=hpe
------------------------------
This nep-hpe issue is ©2023 by Erik Thomson
<http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pth72.htm>. It is provided as is without
any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or
in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org.
For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese
<http://novarese.org/> at <[log in to unmask]>. Put “NEP” in the
subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by
the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.
|
